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Digital Lifescapes | by David H. Deans
According to the latest market study from TDG Research, global adoption of Home Servers will grow from 1.2 million in 2008 to more than 90 million by 2015.
TDG's latest assessment identifies several factors which will spur widespread market availability of, and consumer demand for, easy-to-use inexpensive Home Server platforms in the next few years.
TDG says that key drivers include:
- Mainstream adoption of broadband Internet service and home networks;
- The rate at which consumer-created and commercial digital media content is being stockpiled in consumer homes, and its impact on in-home storage requirements;
- The proliferation of in-home, mobile, and portable digital media devices which require synchronization, backup, and interoperability with other devices; and
- Swift declines in the cost of digital storage which place manufacturing and distributing inexpensive Home Server products well within the reach of most OEMs.
Though the PC has been the incumbent device for such store-and-serve functionality, the tide is now turning.
According to Ted Theocheung, senior analyst with TDG, "The long-standing presumption in favor of the PC as the digital media store-and-serve platform is shifting to a new class of devices with more consumer electronics (CE) characteristics that deliver simple, reliable, and targeted functionality. For mainstream consumers, the PC will become more of a client on the home network, as opposed to the primary Home Server."
TDG's report offers an analysis of the evolution of digital home store-and-serve solutions; discusses the key drivers and inhibitors impacting this market; offers both global and regional forecasts of Home Server growth to 2015; and provides a detailed set of recommendations for companies looking to enter this market space.
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July 14th, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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The adoption of mobile broadband services -- which now have more than 100 million subscribers worldwide -- is sparking a data traffic boom that will revive the struggling mobile base station market by 2011, according to the latest study by Informa Telecoms & Media.
Global mobile data traffic is set to increase 1088 percent from 162 petabytes (PB) in 2007 to 1,925PB in 2012, driven by a boom in advanced applications such as mobile Internet browsing and video, according to Informa.
Their report forecasts that global mobile traffic from YouTube and other mobile video streaming applications will increase by 5514 percent by 2012. Another key factor in the traffic boom is the rise of user-friendly devices such as the iPhone, which can lead to a thirty-fold increase in traffic per subscriber.
But operators will struggle to cope with the traffic boom because the popularity of flat-rate tariffs means that mobile data revenues will not keep pace with traffic -- which has a direct impact on service provider costs.
"We forecast that global mobile data revenues will only increase 77 percent from 2007 to 2012, compared to a 1088 percent increase in mobile data traffic over the same period," says Mike Roberts, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.
This will push current mobile network costs and architectures to the breaking point, and will lead to everything from network sharing and spectrum refarming to the launch of femtocells and next-generation networks.
The disconnect between soaring mobile data traffic and modestly increasing revenues helps to explain why operators will keep a lid on network investment in the short term.
"The mobile base station market will be flat for several years due to restrained operator investment in many regions and fierce price competition among vendors, but base station unit sales and revenues will rebound in 2011 as the mobile traffic boom forces operators to invest in new capacity," Roberts says.
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July 14th, 2008 @ 9:07AM |
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The FCC, with its low bar of expectation policy, still maintains that any data speed above 200 Kbps is considered broadband, as the rest of the developed world laughs at this apparent denial of truly Olympic proportions.
Meanwhile, In-Stat noted that at the NXTcomm show in Las Vegas, Verizon announced it is increasing the top speed of its FiOS broadband service in 10 states. They will now offer downloads at 50 Megabits per second (Mbps) and uploads at 20 Mbps -- up from 30 Mbps downstream and 15 Mbps upstream.
FiOS service areas in California, Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington will benefit from the speed increase. Apparently, the 50 Mbps service is already available to FiOS customers in Connecticut, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and Rhode Island.
However, the broadband boost comes with a high price (compared to other countries) -- the 50 Mbps download and 20 Mbps upload service will cost $140 per month.
In-Stat believes that this announcement was significant, particularly since U.S. cable operators have been touting the benefits, and speed, of their DOCSIS 3.0 standard for broadband cable services.
An example was the Comcast announcement in April that it was launching its first higher-speed service in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area. The MSO is now offering download speeds of up to 50 Mbps and uploads at 5 Mbps. Monthly service is priced at $150 for residential customers and $200 for commercial customers.
Comcast says it expects to have DOCSIS 3.0 services available to 20 percent of customer homes passed by the end of 2008, with a complete rollout to all homes passed by mid-2010. In the next two years, they "anticipate" increasing download speeds to 100 Mbps, rising to 160 Mbps or more in the future.
In-Stat cautions, however, that it's important to remember that while broadband service providers tend to highlight their fastest service offering, few of their subscribers actually get that kind of speed.
In fact, recent In-Stat market studies shows that the average U.S. broadband connection currently provides just 3.8 Mbps for downloads, and 1 Mbps for uploads. Therefore, "real broadband" speeds appear to elude most Americans.
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July 12th, 2008 @ 8:07AM |
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ComScore released the latest figures from the M:Metrics Benchmark Study which reports that photo messaging from mobile phones has grown 60 percent in the United States over the past year and 16 percent in Europe, where photo messaging got an earlier start.
"Summer vacations provide the perfect context for photo messaging, as the utility of instantly sharing a holiday moment with loved ones is undeniably compelling," commented Mark Donovan, senior vice president,comScore Mobile Products.
"The cameraphone could replace the postcard as the preferred mode to say wish you were here, as even parents and grandparents are snapping and sending photos from their mobile devices."
In Europe, where photo messaging is more mature, usage rates are more consistent throughout the year, rising only slightly in summer. From 2006 to 2007, the rate of photo messaging use in Europe during the month of July was average and in August, 7 percent higher than average.
Instead, usage spikes during December, as families share Christmas holiday celebrations and send photos from their newly acquired phones. The same phenomenon is also observed in the United States, where photo messaging is also higher in December than it is in an average month.
The M:Metrics Benchmark Study indicates that the photo messaging growth in the U.S.is coming from all age demographic segments, with the fastest growth coming from teens and those older than 35. In the more developed European market, the strongest growth is coming from those aged 55 years and older.
Cameraphones are in the hands of the majority of mobile phone users and are increasingly a part of the fabric of people's lives, with 78 percent of Europeans and 66 percent of Americans owning a cameraphone today.
Photo messaging rates have risen steadily month over month with nearly a quarter of all American mobile phone users and about a third of Europeans sending or receiving photos in April.
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July 11th, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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The United Kingdom PC market demonstrated solid performance in 1Q08, as overall PC shipments for the quarter reached more than 3.25 million units, an increase of 14.3 percent year on year, according to IDC's latest assessment.
Mobility continued to be the key driver, as the notebook market grew by a very healthy 41.8 percent, thanks to renewals, further expansion of the installed base to new buyers, and multiple-equipment purchases.
Due to the rising popularity of portable PCs, desktop sales continued to decline, particularly in the consumer and Small and Medium-sized Business (SMB) segments, as many users chose to replace their existing desktop systems with notebooks.
"Demand for notebooks, stimulated by fierce vendor competition and aggressive pricing, will remain a key engine for growth throughout the year," said Lucie Jichova, research analyst for IDC's EMEA PC research group.
"Economic pressure will continue to drive cautious spending behavior, but the arrival of low-cost ultra-portables, increasing traction of telco bundles, and mobile solutions in the business space, will maintain strong momentum in the notebook market in the second half of the year."
According to IDC's latest forecast, notebook shipment levels are set to show growth levels of 35.5 percent this year, while desktop volumes are expected to sink further, with an annual decline of -8.3 percent.
"Demand levels for desktops in the SMB and consumer segments remain lackluster. In order to maintain sales volumes of consumer desktops, PC manufacturers will increasingly focus on home entertainment solutions and gaming machines," said Jichova.
Consumers are going to benefit from attractive notebook offers as competition among vendors in the retail channel intensifies. Furthermore, the rising availability of deals that bundle Internet subscription with free notebooks will create further pressure on other channels to bring prices down.
In the UK, consumers tend to focus on PC cost rather than specifications. Recently the introduction of affordable ultra-portable PCs have been very well received by consumers. IDC expects these basic surfing devices will continue to sell extremely well throughout the rest of 2008.
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July 10th, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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While still arguably in its infancy, the digital signage industry has been evolving at a rapid pace, according to the latest market study by Futuresource. In 2007 the industry was depressed by a legacy of project failures and negative press.
Of almost one hundred projects evaluated by Futuresource, nine failed completely to meet any of the objectives set and ten were deemed to be only partial successes.
Though 40 percent of the projects were considered successful, for a further 30 percent it was deemed too early to determine the level of success. Key barriers to the development of the industry have included a lack of clear ROI modeling, few advertising metrics, too much network fragmentation and not enough scalability and project complexity.
One year on, ROI modeling is still an area for contention, though advertising and media agencies have begun to take notice of digital signage, as the effectiveness of traditional mass media communication forms become ever more diluted.
Efforts have been made to provide greater ease of use and flexibility in the content storage and distribution software. More display manufacturers are making software available, with varying degrees of sophistication, for use with their screens.
The industry has a clearer understanding of how content should look and what it aims to achieve. Gone are the days of reusing a TV commercial in its entirety, where only 10 percent, at best, has any kind of call to action in the content.
Regular channels research from Futuresource indicates a reseller community that is growing in awareness and now diversifying its current services and product portfolio to include digital signage.
Despite the myriad of essentially individual projects covering supermarkets, high street multiples, gas stations, gyms, restaurant chains and many other locations across the four countries, Futuresource was able to identify a number of common factors that increase the chances of achieving a successful project, or the absence of which will tip the balance the other way.
The industry has undoubtedly made strides to overcome many of the barriers holding back the adoption of digital signage. Stable and flexible software platforms have been developed, traditional display vendors and global IT giants have entered the market and the distribution or reseller community are beginning to focus on this area.
However, extensive research demonstrates the comparatively high proportion of complete or partial project failures. Further development of measurement and proof point matrices are still clearly required to ensure this medium is viewed as a viable alternative to the traditional communication mix.
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July 10th, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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In 2007, North America generated 81 percent of the world's Location Based Services (LBS) revenue. In 2013, that percentage will be just 32 percent.
In the same period, Western and Eastern Europe's combined LBS revenues will jump from just 5 percent to 31 percent. The Asia-Pacific region, meanwhile, will see a rise from a 2007 share of 11 percent, to 27 percent.
"Location based services are not a zero-sum game," says ABI Research principal analyst Dominique Bonte. "It's not that Americans will lose enthusiasm for LBS. These changing shares of global LBS revenue just reflect the fact that a market which for technical reasons has been largely restricted to North America, will finally grow strongly in other world regions."
LBS's slow uptake outside North America has had everything to do with the fact that unlike the CDMA phones so prevalent there, which have utilized GPS to comply with the United States E911 regulatory mandate, the GSM handsets owned by most users in Europe and Asia have not generally offered native GPS support.
However with the broader proliferation of GPS-enabled GSM handsets in those other regions, and with the quickening rollout of 3G services worldwide, the opportunities for LBS service offerings will grow quickly.
That's not to say that the same applications will be adopted at the same rate everywhere, or that LBS revenues will be uniform. Also, does this mean that the shift in LBS global market share marks the ultimate swan song for CDMA?
Since most LBS application developers sell to the world, and most of their products are platform-agnostic, the cost per service for users is likely to be similar in all regions.
However, a navigation service can cost as much as $9.99 per month, whereas friend-finder services might only be $2.99. On that basis, as well as via cultural preferences, particular services will be popular to differing degrees in different regions. That can affect the total revenue to be generated from a particular region.
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July 9th, 2008 @ 11:07AM |
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Fueled by rapid growth in China, India, and Africa, worldwide mobile phone service subscriptions continued to expand rapidly in 2007, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
Due to some areas approaching saturation and a relatively slow world economy, subscription growth in 2008 is expected to be much less, the high-tech market research firm says.
"India and China subscription numbers are growing at a fast clip, as more of the population gets their first cell phone, and often their first phone of any kind," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst.
Most of these phones are low-end GSM phones, but even some of these phones are starting to incorporate more high-end features.
The In-Stat research covers the worldwide market for mobile phone communication subscriptions. It contains cellular subscription numbers by region and technology for 2006 and 2007, and forecasts through 2012.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- The number of worldwide cellular subscriptions in 2007 grew by 667.6 million over 2006.
- 2008 subscription growth is forecast to be only 382.5 million more than 2007's growth.
- By 2012, yearly growth in subscribers is expected to decrease to only 163 million per year, roughly twice the population increase projected in that year.
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July 9th, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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The most significant growth in mobile phone handset markets will occur at the top and bottom ends of the price and features range, as the smartphone and low-cost handset categories expand at the expense of the mid-range "enhanced" models.
The enhanced phone sector is currently the largest in terms of shipments -- 2007 saw 854 million units shipped. But it will be overtaken by both other classes in 2013, with just 441 million shipping.
According to ABI Research director Kevin Burden, "As we see more user sophistication and demand for high-end features, handset manufacturers will continue to push functions of high-level smartphone operating systems further down their product lines. Their smartphone portfolios will grow, and with them, the entire smartphone market."
Mobile operators want more smartphone users too, because they generate higher ARPU. And operators like phones with standard operating systems that are optimized for their content delivery platforms.
Meanwhile, driven by the huge emerging markets in countries such as China, India, and Brazil, the low-cost and ultra-low-cost handset categories are set to become the largest classes of mobile phones by 2013 in terms of shipments, though not in terms of revenue.
"While the unit shipments of ultra-low-cost handsets will be dramatic over the forecast period, the device class is only expected to account for 6 percent of the market's overall revenue," notes Burden. "But vendors will continue to pursue these markets for the sake of brand-building and the prospect of eventual upward migration by users."
Since no single mobile device will serve the needs of everyone, a number of other form factors will compete for user's mobile computing cycles. In particular, MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices) and UMPCs (Ultra-mobile PCs) show promise for wider consumer acceptance.
According to ABI's assessment, prices will be moderate (eventually under $200 for many MIDs) and they'll typically deliver a superior mobile Internet experience.
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July 8th, 2008 @ 9:07AM |
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The commercial applications for digital media are growing fast. IDC conducted a survey to assess adoption of video usage within the business environment for internal communications with employees, training, collaboration, etc.
Their findings come from IDC's Enterprise Panel. The panel is an online community of IT and line-of-business professionals who influence the technology-related investment decisions of their organization. The panel includes worldwide businesses of all sizes and in all industries.
If you believe that business video applications are just for large corporations, or that SMBs can't benefit from the availability of digital media basic authoring tools, then you should read my post entitled "Business Video on an SMB Budget" -- which is featured on Dell's Small Business blog.
Key findings from IDC's survey include:
- Videoconferencing (or TelePresence) is the most dominant use-case for enterprise video today, followed closely by employee training, record/playback of meetings, and executive communications to employees.
- At the majority of organizations that use business video today, employees watch the video on their PCs (both on-demand and live). Respondents expect a significant increase in the use of enterprise video to employee's mobile phones and iPods in the next two years. Video will become pervasive across multiple channels.
- The typical employee watches 4.6 hours of enterprise video per month today; survey respondents expect that number to more than double to 9.8 hours per month over the next two years.
- Respondents ranked cost avoidance, improved collaboration, and improved customer service highly as business drivers for adoption of enterprise video; reinforcing company culture or branding ranked close behind.
- IT and corporate communications own the budget for business video, but budgets are often fragmented across the organization.
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July 8th, 2008 @ 9:07AM |
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According to IDC estimates, about a quarter of the world's population -- roughly 1.4 billion people -- will use the Internet on a regular basis in 2008. That number is expected to surpass 1.9 billion unique users, or 30 percent of the world's population, in 2012.
"The Internet will have added its second billion users over a span of about eight years, a testament to both its universal appeal and its availability," said John Gantz, chief research officer at IDC.
"In this time, the Internet has also become more deeply integrated into the fabric of many user's personal and professional lives, enabling them to work, play, and socialize anytime from anywhere. These trends will accelerate as the number of mobile users continues to soar and the Internet becomes truly ubiquitous."
While the PC is currently the dominant means of gaining access to the Internet, IDC expects the number of mobile devices accessing the Internet will surpass the number of online PCs by 2012. Once on the Internet, users will continue to spend time on Web 1.0 activities like searching, shopping, and sending email.
But Web 2.0 activities, such as watching user-generated videos, posting blogs, and participating in social networks, are quickly capturing the attention and time online of more and more Internet users. The latter will create new opportunities and challenges for online advertisers seeking to monetize the Internet experience.
IDC's forecast includes the following:
- Users will access the Internet through more than 1.5 billion devices worldwide in 2008, including PCs, mobile phones, and online video game consoles. By 2012, the number of devices accessing the Internet will double to more than 3 billion, half of which will be mobile devices.
- China passed the United States in 2007 to become the country with the largest number of Internet users. China's online population is forecast to grow from 275 million users in 2008 to 375 million users in 2012.
- Nearly half of all Internet users will make online purchases in 2008. By 2012, there will be more than 1 billion online buyers worldwide making business to consumer (B2C) transactions worth $1.2 trillion. Business to business (B2B) eCommerce will be ten times larger, totaling $12.4 trillion worldwide in 2012.
- Worldwide spending on Internet advertising will total $65.2 billion in 2008, which is nearly 10 percent of all ad spending across all media. This share is expected to reach 13.6 percent by 2011 as Internet ad spending grows to $106.6 billion worldwide.
- Roughly 40 percent of all Internet users worldwide currently have mobile Internet access. The number of mobile Internet users will reach 546 million in 2008, nearly twice as many as in 2006, and is forecast to surpass 1.5 billion worldwide in 2012.
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July 7th, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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The worldwide shipment growth of personal navigation devices (PNDs) was higher than anticipated last year, with shipments reaching 30.7 million in 2007, up from 13.3 million in 2006, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
The main drivers for this growth were price declines, efficient volume availability through the retail channels during the holiday season, enhanced functionality, and stronger consumer demand for navigation overall.
"However, the PND market faces strong competition from both mobile phone handset navigation and embedded automotive navigation systems," says Stephanie Ethier, In-Stat analyst. "In particular, vendors in handset navigation are starting to offer a number of value-added services, such as pedestrian navigation, offline navigation, and searches for local points of interest."
Their research covers the worldwide market for personal navigation devices. It offers a revised PND forecast that takes into account market developments that occurred in the second half of 2007 and in the first half of 2008. It also provides a regional breakout for PND shipments. Competitive threats such as in-car navigation and GPS-enabled handsets are discussed.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Worldwide unit shipments of PNDs are expected to grow from 30.7 million units in 2007 to 68 million units in 2012.
- PND manufacturers are integrating advanced functionality in PNDs in order to improve the price or performance value.
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July 7th, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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MTV Networks (MTVN) and Harris Interactive research reveals a companion metric to measuring audience size, offering a new way for advertisers to potentially target the most engaged and valuable TV and online audiences.
Their research study confirms that not all programming viewers are created equal and that the value of television and online advertising grows as viewers connect with marketing messages across multiple device screens.
Following-up on its prior case study, MTV Networks and Harris Interactive conducted research across MTVN's brands, which provides empirical evidence that audiences develop stronger emotional connections to content and advertising messages when they consume and interact with them across multiple platforms.
In total, more than 20,000 respondents between 13 and 49 participated in evaluating MTV Networks' programs, as well as competitive programs, networks and websites along a series of questions geared to defining a scalable and predictive engagement measurement model that, in effect, unlocks the value of engagement for marketers.
Specifically, this study reveals that some viewers are significantly more engaged with the content than others. These viewers with higher engagement are more likely to remember seeing adverts, internalize the message and be motivated by it to share more about the content and advertising with others -- when compared with those that are less engaged.
This translates into increased purchase intent -- up to two- and three-times -- among viewers for brands that advertise in engagement-rich environments.
As media touch points have multiplied for consumers during the past decade, many producers and marketers have struggled to understand the factors driving audience engagement with brands and programming in this multi-platform environment that includes television, online and mobile devices.
The level of engagement with digital media has critical implications for an advertiser. Advancing technologies, especially Web-based, are altering consumers' relationships with brands, particularly among those whom are most tightly engaged with the program.
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July 4th, 2008 @ 1:07AM |
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According to an Infonetics Research study, worldwide mobile video phone sales neared $99 billion in 2007 and are expected to grow strongly over the next 5 years, despite the challenge service providers face in making mobile video services profitable.
Infonetics' report provides worldwide and regional market size and forecasts of mobile video service revenue, mobile video subscribers and mobile video phones in the various industry standard segments (3G/MBMS, DVB-H, FLO, ISDB-T, S/T-DMB, and DAB).
The report shows that the number of mobile video subscribers topped 10 million worldwide in 2007, and is expected to nearly triple by the end of 2008, with explosive growth continuing through at least 2011.
"The cost to manufacture mobile video phones with high quality screens and extended battery life will continue to drop considerably over the next few years, and as that happens, service providers will want to make sure they have the phones with the most revenue-generating potential in the hands of their subscribers. We expect the number of mobile video phones to quadruple between 2007 and 2011," said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for IPTV at Infonetics.
Other highlights from the Infonetics report include:
- Worldwide service provider revenue from mobile video services nearly tripled in 2007 and is expected to nearly triple again in 2008.
- Advertising will play a major short- and long-term role in ensuring the profitability of mobile video services, and mobile operators will be working throughout 2008 with advertisers and media buying agencies to sell their mobile video ad avails, which should become more prevalent in mid-2009.
- As more mobile devices emulate the look and feel of the iPhone, much like Samsung's Instinct and LG's VU, and become more widely available, subscribers will be more likely to subscribe to, and stick with, a mobile video service.
- Vendors of video processing and head-end equipment are lining up with mobile network equipment suppliers to help speed the roll-out of mobile video networks; partnerships and acquisitions along these lines will continue as the mobile video opportunity becomes clearer around the world.
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July 4th, 2008 @ 1:07AM |
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Social networking has become an integral part of the Internet experience, however, after 13 years of applications in the U.S. market, revenue generation is not what it was once predicted to be, according to a recent market study by In-Stat.
The solution is to find different models -- innovative business methods -- to capitalize on the wealth of data social networking sites collect, the high-tech market research firm says.
Affiliate advertising, the selling of virtual goods, micro-payments, social network site merchandising, and data mining are all viable alternatives to traditional revenue generation models.
"Development of niche social networking sites is an essential piece of the monetization puzzle," says Jill Meyers, In-Stat analyst.
"The more specific a social networking site is to a select group of users, the more targeted the advertising can become; the more loyal the membership will be because it caters to specific interests; and the more opportunities the site will have to be profitable."
Their research provides a brief history of social networking, the groups that participate, different models of monetization -- both current and potentially future -- and contains the results of an In-Stat U.S. consumer survey about online social networking.
I believe that niche group interaction, now enabled by social network platforms, is merely the current generation of online group communication that started with email lists, grew to incorporate threaded-message discussions, and various other types of online forum applications.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- In-Stat forecasts 92.2 million social networking users in the U.S. by 2012.
- 66.6 percent of respondents to the In-Stat U.S. consumer survey do not pay for premium services or features.
- 16.7 percent of survey respondents use a mobile phone to participate in online social networking or video content sites.
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July 3rd, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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According to Infonetics Research, the combined Internet protocol television (IPTV) and switched digital video (SDV) equipment market increased 12 percent sequentially to $1.3 billion worldwide in 1Q08.
Infonetics' market study indicates revenue growth is being driven by growing numbers of service providers rolling out new IPTV networks or expanding existing networks to support more subscribers.
The market is also getting a push from cable MSOs introducing switched video capabilities into their digital TV networks to free up bandwidth and offer more high definition (HD) content to their subscribers.
"While most of the segments we track in the IPTV market are seeing consistent quarterly growth, IPTV middleware is going to be an especially interesting segment to watch. We're expecting an IPTV middleware spending spree over the next few quarters because a lot of the early IPTV service providers are running into scaling issues with their off-the-shelf middleware" said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for IPTV at Infonetics Research.
"Those providers are going to have to replace their IPTV middleware with a more robust solution to replace or augment their first-generation deployments. Middleware issues are one of the main root causes of IPTV rollout delays, so early hiccups have to be addressed quickly."
Clearly, the primary scalability-challenged systems offender is the now notorious Microsoft IPTV platform.
Other highlights from the Infonetics study include:
- The number of IPTV subscribers is forecast to hit 93 million worldwide by 2011.
- Worldwide IP set-top box revenue grew 10 percent in 1Q08 over 4Q07.
- Motorola continues to lead the worldwide IP set-top box (STB) market in 1Q08, although its closest competitors made major inroads this quarter, reducing Motorola's lead.
- ADB takes the lead in 1Q08 in worldwide hybrid IP/over-the-air STB market share.
- Cablevision was the first to roll out switched digital video; it will soon be followed by other MSOs in North America, then those in Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA) and Asia Pacific (APAC), who face an uphill battle for triple play subscribers
- France remains the hotbed of IPTV activity, with Orange, Free, and neuf all battling for IPTV subscribers.
- Telco IPTV operators in Western Europe, particularly France, Sweden, and Italy, continue to "give-away" their IPTV service to hold on to their broadband subscribers.
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July 3rd, 2008 @ 9:07AM |
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Worldwide mobile phone subscriptions will rise from 3.9 billion in 2008 to 5.6 billion in 2013, according to the latest market study by Strategy Analytics.
Discounting for people with more than one subscription, more than half of the world's population will be using mobile phones by early 2010, up from 40 percent at the start of this year.
Asia-Pacific and the Middle East & Africa (MEA) are responsible for the current surge in mobile phone service subscriptions. Those areas will remain the engines for growth in the wireless market in the medium term, contributing to 80 percent of subscription growth through 2013.
"These two regions may be driving the subscription count, but they contribute much less to global revenues," comments Phil Kendall, Director Global Wireless Practice.
"Asia-Pacific and MEA account for nearly 60 percent of worldwide subscriptions, but less than 40 percent of revenues. Their increasing significance will reduce average revenues per subscription by 15 percent over the next five years."
3G networks will account for half of all mobile subscriptions by 2013. Susan Welsh de Grimaldo, Senior Analyst, adds "3G technologies will reach critical mass in more regions in 2008, driving worldwide subscriber numbers close to 500 million by year end."
Next year, more than one third of all mobile service revenues will be generated by 3G technologies, even though 3G accounts for only one in six subscribers.
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July 2nd, 2008 @ 10:07AM |
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According to Infonetics Research, the worldwide WiMAX equipment market, including fixed and mobile WiMAX equipment, increased 59 percent sequentially to $363 million in 1Q08.
Infonetics' latest report indicates the surge in the market was led by especially strong mobile WiMAX (802.16e) equipment sales, which jumped 141 percent this quarter to overtake revenue from fixed WiMAX (802.16d) equipment for the first time.
"A significant number of new mobile WiMAX networks began rollout in the first quarter, and existing networks continued to scale up, driving sales in 1Q08. We expect healthy growth for the evolving mobile WiMAX market, which is seeing strong adoption from Tier 2 and 3 carriers." said Richard Webb, wireless analyst for Infonetics Research.
Also, growth came from Tier 1 nationwide operators as well, like Sprint-Clearwire in the U.S., SK Telecom and KT in South Korea, Wateen in Pakistan, BSNL in India, and Vodafone and Orange in new territories.
Highlights from the Infonetics report include:
- The nascent mobile WiMAX phone and Ultra Mobile PC segments showed early traction, together increasing 171 percent sequentially in 1Q08; these devices have appealing, non-traditional form factors and capabilities and will play a major role in attracting new subscribers to mobile WiMAX networks.
- The number of fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers topped 2 million worldwide in 2007 and is expected to triple by the end of 2008.
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July 2nd, 2008 @ 9:07AM |
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European WCDMA subscriptions passed the 100 million mark in May 2008, just over five years after the region's first commercial WCDMA-network launch, according to a market study by Informa Telecoms & Media.
At the end of May 2008, Informa says there were 101.5 million WCDMA subscriptions in Europe -- out of a total of 910.8 million mobile subscriptions -- taking WCDMA penetration to 11.1 percent of subscriptions.
Penetration of WCDMA is generally highest in markets where the technology was launched earliest. Italy became the first market in Europe to offer WCDMA devices when 3 Italia launched services in March 2003. The country now accounts for a quarter of Europe's WCDMA subscriptions and has one of the highest 3G penetration rates, with 28.7 percent of subscriptions via WCDMA devices.
Other markets where greenfield operator 3 launched in 1H03 also have high 3G penetration rates, notably Austria, Sweden and the UK.
WCDMA-device sales in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have to date been far lower than in Western Europe. WCDMA subscriptions totalled just 7.8 million, or 1.9 percent of the total, according to Informa's market data.
As a result, Slovenia and Georgia are the only markets in CEE where penetration of WCDMA has exceeded 10 percent of total subscriptions. As the cost of WCDMA devices falls worldwide, Informa forecasts that the CEE region will reach 10 percent WCDMA penetration by early 2011.
A slight slowdown in the growth in WCDMA handset sales in Western Europe in 1Q08 was counteracted by an acceleration in sales of WCDMA/HSPA datacards and modems, which boosted the size of the total 3G market, particularly in Sweden and Austria.
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July 2nd, 2008 @ 9:07AM |
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Dell'Oro Group reported that the worldwide set-top box market contracted 6 percent sequentially to $3.5 billion in the first quarter of this year.
The market was up 9 percent, however, compared to the year-ago quarter. The quarter's sequential decline was due to double-digit percent drop in the satellite set-top box (STB) market, which reflected seasonal weakness.
The market for pay-TV services continues to see strong growth and competition, and these factors will continue to translate into healthy STB sales which are boosted by increasing volumes and average selling prices.
Prices continue to rise as high definition (HD)and digital video recorder (DVR) functionality becomes a higher percentage of the overall product mix.
In 1Q08, HD shipments for the first time surpassed standard definition shipments as consumers are increasingly choosing HD services and service providers are deploying HD capable set-tops ahead of demand.
Echostar, which was recently spun off from Dish Network, edged out Thomson in the first quarter for the top position in terms of unit shipments. Seasonality also impacted the results of the combined Pace and Philips market share, according to the report.
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July 1st, 2008 @ 11:07AM |
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| About David H. |
| David is the Senior Partner of Deans & Associates, and the founder of GeoActive Group USA. He established this technology and digital media marketing professional services company to specialize in market research, go-to-market strategy development, plus the design and execution of targeted market... |
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